No racing so a chance to test football and cricket theories instead

One of things that has kept me going through this winter's house arrest has been Friday evenings spent doing the form for the next day's races, in particular the top class stuff broadcast on ITV.

The freeze has put paid to that today with both Warwick and Newbury (2 of my favourite tracks for jumps racing) off.

So what is a recreational punter to do, with no racing and no end in sight to being confined to barracks? Betting on football and cricket it is then, and a chance to test some theories.

For some time my sensible (as opposed to stupid or emotional) football bets have concentrated on backing the draw in clashes between evenly matched teams. The thinking is that bookmakers know punters prefer backing a team to win, and therefore the draw price provides better value. Added to this is some evidence to suggest that no crowds mean that teams are less pressurised to go for a win, and more likely to 'settle' for a draw.

In the Premiership this weekend there are 2 matches which fit my criteria of 2 evenly matched teams-

Leicester v Liverpool

Brighton v Aston Villa

In both cases the draw is 5/2. Bet £40 at that price and you win £100.

Up until now I have thought of correct score betting as a mug's game. However in these matches these are prices for correct score draws-

*0-0 12/1

1-1 13/2

2-2 12/1

Split your £40 3 ways as follows-

£10 each on the 12/1 shots and it's a return of £120 if one cops, and then £20 on the 1-1 and that's a £130 return. You do of course lose out if the draw is 3-3 or above but that is very rare. My inclination is simply to dutch the 0-0 and 1-1 (the 'lack of crowds leads to lower scores' theory) and the return will be considerably higher than simply backing the draw.

* Remember never bet the 0-0 correct score. Instead bet no goalscorer (which will be the same price as the 0-0 but includes the added insurance that own goals do not count - i.e. a 1-0 win in which the goal was an own goal will pay on no goalscorer).

As for the cricket, I am turning to the current India/England test series. England had a fantastic win in the first test but India remain favourites to win the series. To do so they must win 2 of the 3 remaining tests (and not lose the 3rd). 

Although betting is officially illegal in India, there is no doubt that a lot of Indians love a bet on the cricket, and when they do it is generally on their team to win - the same patriotic gamble that you would see on England in World Cups and European championships which always made backing their opponents value.

I am convinced that India are a slightly better team than England, but England at odds against in a series they already lead suddenly becomes value. In the sport of cricket it seems for once us Englishmen can have a patriotic bet which makes punting sense. My bet is the second test to be a draw - India win toss and post massive 1st innings total. England then play out for a draw with 1 wicket left at end!