Don't get carried away - and football tonight

I was not allowed to watch the racing this afternoon as Mrs. C. said I had to do the cleaning. As a result I forgot to back Buckhorn George - which turned out to be a result as he finished 2nd. That was a relief as backing a loser is nowhere near as bad as not punting a winner - and it is supposed to be fun.

The Percy Prosecco analysis was right but sadly Pledge of Peace was nearly as bad. However the nationals might not be so bad after all. The dual forecast came up. Dawson City beat The King's Writ and yes I think Millie Wonnacott made the difference.

My stepfather used to do the dual forecast every day - and always came 1st and 3rd - so this was a welcome success but it would be naive to suggest it will continue.

I bet on football purely for fun. It is impossible for folk like me to make money because the syndicates - especially those in east Asia - know far more than I do. Tonight Liverpool play Burnley. Of course Liverpool should win. Their players are so much better than Burnley's. But Liverpool have not played well lately which suggests to me the recency bias might suggest some value.

Pinnacle (thank you Tony Bloom) are the most accurate football odds setters. You cannot bet with them if you are in the UK because they are no longer licensed here. There is some way of doing it via a VPN but that worries me. So what I look for is any difference between the Pinnacle show and UK bookies.

Checking now (6.31) and I cannot even find out the Pinnacle odds. Perhaps that has even been stopped?

Update at 6.55 and got it on my iPad . Liverpool 1.236, draw 6.77 and Burney 13.3 (decimal odds - another subject for a future post!). Bet365 have Liverpool at 1.24 so that's a bet for me. Not going to win much but it - just about - represents value (£100 to win £24).

Oh and in respect of trainer form, Colin Tizzard's horses stayed on ok so I suspect you might see some value in the next couple of days. On the other hand the 'in-form' yard of Gary Moore saw its runners disappoint so I might look to oppose them this weekend (especially if any are at short odds).

Oh and Sword Exceed came 3rd.

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