Beware my record but these are 4 outsiders for the big one

Grand National day and the usual texts and messages "Any tips for the race?" and my heart sinks - the pressure!

I was once asked in an interview what my specialist subject would be in the (very unlikely event) of me being on Mastermind. My answer was "the history of the Grand National". The interview panel looked mystified and funnily enough I did not get the job.

My betting on the National was initially rather successful. I backed Red Rum to win his third. I also backed Churchtown Boy the year he did not come second after winning the Topham 2 days earlier (an achievement to nearly match Red Rum going onto to win the Scottish National 2 weeks after his second triumph in the big one).

I may have backed Boom Docker when he refused when 30 lengths ahead. I definitely did back Party Politics, Maori Venture, Numbersixvalverde (the last time I had the winner) and Royal Athlete (the latter sadly only 50p each way at 66/1 in the morning - and the bookie tried to pay me out at starting price!)

Finally I did not back Mon Mome (despite following him all season) but did back Little Polvier the time he unseated Tom Morgan when in the lead and going well at Valentines second time round. Of course I left him alone the following year when he triumphed fairly easily under Jimmy Frost.

That history gives some context - i.e. any tip from me for the big race comes with a huge health/wealth warning.

So to the race. First let me put on record that I think Cloth Cap is the most likely winner. He is clearly the best handicapped horse (although the latest upgrade after the publication of the National weights may have overrated him) but I cannot back him at 9/2.  After that the other most likely winner of the shorties is Any Second Now, trained by the ultra shrewd Ted Walsh. The only thing putting me off is that he has been running over 2 miles in preparation and I do not subscribe to the once fashionable theory that the National (over 4 and a half miles) suits 2 milers (Gay Trip and possibly Crisp are the the only horses which provide any evidence for this utterly illogical idea).

These are the 4 I have backed-

Mister Malarkey. One of the few bright spots for the Tizzards  in a poor season for them, Mr Malarkey should like the ground and is fairly sure to stay. He is a bit of a s**t or bust horse (either runs well or badly) but I backed him at 33/1. Best price is now only 20's as I think he was tipped in some of the morning papers.

Jett. Has back (ok a long way back) form in Ireland which suggests some class. Amateur ridden (which contributes to the big price), but Robert Waley Cohen has pretty much the best record of all the jockeys in the race. Worth a dabble at the widely available 100/1 (150/1 win only on the exchange).

Yale Enki. This horse has a touch of class and has been placed under big weights in 3 Welsh Nationals. Horses he beat or matched are lower prices. There is the problem that he fell at the first ("I was going so well at the time") the only day he faced the National fences, but if Bryony Frost can get him jumping in a rhythm then there is no better judge of the pace on the front (as her ride on Frodon in the King George showed). 50/1

Blacklion. I had hoped Blacklion would be a bigger price than the 50/1 he is this morning. He certainly should be on the basis of his form since he was bought by Darren 'more money than sense' Yates. However he won the Beecher as easy as you like in 2017 and was placed in One For Arthur's National. If Dan Skelton has got him back to anything like that then he has a squeak. His profile reminds me a little of Gordon Elliott's Silver Birch, who won having surprisingly sprung back to form under a new trainer.

And finally remember if you have a bet on today's race TAKE THE PRICE.