The Recreational Punter

Highlights A confident bet against market expectations for Sheffield United to beat Brighton. The statisticians' favourites continue to be overbet, despite their inability to beat most of the (few) clubs below them in the Premiership. You would have made a decent profit opposing Graham Potter's men this season, although I still think he is the best English manager around. The 25/1 to be next Tottenham manager is not looking good, although Betfair Sportsbook would only allow £10 on. Greaneteen looked a good price to win the grade 1 Celebration Chase at Sandown. I thought Altior had gone at the game and Sceau Royal had had a hard season so backed him to win at 8/1 with Bet365, and then breached my no each-way at under 10's rule because Betfair were paying 3 places in the 7 runner race, and I was convinced Greaneteen would be placed. Bryony Frost rode an excellent race, not letting Altior get away down the back, and then sneaking up Nico de Boinville's inside on the home b...

He is not everyone's cup of tea but I admire Richard Birch's honesty in his column describing his punting week published in Racing and Football Outlook. He is an eccentric chap. I will never forget the extraordinary strides, a kind of extremely baggy set of beige combats, combined with black slip on shoes, which "Birchy" wore to present the prize in the race he sponsors at Footwell in memory of his parents. In his little speech he spoke movingly of his love for his mum and dad and his love for gambling, hence the sponsorship of the race and my respect for him. With the Guineas only nine days way, and Mark Howard's terrific 'Ahead on the Flat' arriving through my door, it seemed the right time for me to produce a weekly round-up of bets and thoughts on gambling, for my own amusement and discipline - and maybe someone else will like it. It was great to see racing at Brighton back with an evening fixture last Saturday. I am not sure that late kick offs suit t...

The Scottish Grand National on a Sunday? What would the Kirk say? Perhaps this once the horse racers will be forgiven as avoiding a clash with Prince Philip's funeral provides a valid excuse for breaking the Sabbath. In the glory days of Channel 4 covering the racing, you would find Alex Salmond and Robin Cook giving their well informed opinions on the big race as guests on the Morning Line, jousting in a friendlyish manner with John McCrirrick. Sadly no more - Cook and McCririck have died and Alex Salmond has .... well best not go there. Nicola Sturgeon is an ever-present on Scottish TV but I am pretty sure that even she would admit to not being an expert on the form and going at Ayr. So in the absence of a tip from the First Minister I will just have to go in again on 2 horses I have followed all season- Aye Right - trained by the admirable Harriet Graham, and too consistent for his own good. Keeps running well in big races without winning and is consequently punished by the hand...

There was an occasion when I backed 6 horses in singles and 5 of them won (at decent prices too). It showed a profit of £1500 which was great, until I realised that if I'd put them in a "toby multiple" I would have been looking at a life changing  (ok well life enhancing) £80k plus. Since then I have often done small accumulators, in my mind as account closure prevention strategies, but in reality to prevent the sense of disappointment which the aforementioned successful wagers led to. Today I just backed singles and coming home from work I sat down to watch the replays. Would you Adam (and Eve) it - Elysian Flame won at 25/1 (despite the going being against him) which led to an oi oi but oh dear what if the others won? For reasons I can kind of explain I was the relieved that my other bets- 3.50 Ayr - Defining Battle (the only bl**dy Harry Skelton horse not to help him to the jockey's championship) 4.10 Fontwell - Glorious Boru (I was worried momentarily) and, 4.45 F...

I see no point in following runners from the top stables (Gosden/s - wish I'd called my son Thaddeus! -, O'Brien, Fellowes, Haggas, Balding etc) after the Craven, because they are always so well found in the market.   With that caveat in mind these are the horses I will be keeping an eye on, following an excellent 3 days at Newmarket, over the next few months- Fast Medicine. This horse cost a fair whack and has been 33/1 and 66/1 on its first 2 starts. It kept on well after the dip on Tuesday and could win - but I suspect will be gambled on when it does so put in your tracker and back the night before. Desert Dreamer. She won very easily for Stuart Williams (underrated trainer) and Hollie Doyle never touched her. Hopefully she can win at an even higher level. Seattle Rock. Trained by Sylvester Kirk and thought ran ok in the Nell Gwynn. Entered at Newbury on 18 April (would be surprised if she runs) but could go in at big odds at some point. Bellosa. Could not have been more imp...

that the Craven's there. Apologies to Robert Browning but the Craven meeting at Newmarket always lifts my heart. As I have got older I have taken more of an interest in flat racing, and even have tentatively started learning more about breeding and pedigrees. That Galileo seems quite good, and Frankel is not doing bad in his second career! For me the Craven signals spring has arrived (even when it is snowing) and it is also the true beginning of the flat turf season (with due apologies to the Lincoln and Brocklesby).  The quality of the racing is pretty good, even if the big stables do give more prep runs for their better horses on the all weather these days. I have been lucky enough to attend as a 'guest' member on 4 occasions, enduring tropical heat, electronic storms forcing all the power to go down during a race and bitterly cold winds arriving direct and uninterrupted from the Ukranian Steppes. Despite the Craven itself not being the Derby trial it used to be - after a...

Yesterday's National was a proper race - stupid statement I know but it was run at a fast gallop and produced a deserving winner in Minella Times under a superb ride by Rachael Blackmore. She was in the perfect position throughout and timed her winning move from 4 out just right. Remarkably the trainer, Henry de Bromhead, is now third in the British jump trainers championship with 8 winners from just 36 runners. I did warn readers about my tipping prowess in the big race but at least we had a bit of excitement with 2 of the 4. The disappointments were Mister Malarkey, accurately described as a s**t or bust horse. It was obvious from the first fence that it was not a going day for him, and he pulled up shortly after halfway. Surprisingly I was not the only one that fancied him, as he was backed in from 33/1 to a SP of 12/1. Yale Enki was going ok from the start to Beechers first time but gradually started falling back before being unsighted by a faller in front of him at the 20th, ...

Grand National day and the usual texts and messages "Any tips for the race?" and my heart sinks - the pressure! I was once asked in an interview what my specialist subject would be in the (very unlikely event) of me being on Mastermind. My answer was "the history of the Grand National". The interview panel looked mystified and funnily enough I did not get the job. My betting on the National was initially rather successful. I backed Red Rum to win his third. I also backed Churchtown Boy the year he did not come second after winning the Topham 2 days earlier (an achievement to nearly match Red Rum going onto to win the Scottish National 2 weeks after his second triumph in the big one). I may have backed Boom Docker when he refused when 30 lengths ahead. I definitely did back Party Politics, Maori Venture, Numbersixvalverde (the last time I had the winner) and Royal Athlete (the latter sadly only 50p each way at 66/1 in the morning - and the bookie tried to pay me out ...

Right this is a completely serious and, just, betting post (yes really). I am a massive admirer of Pam Sly. Possibly the most underrated trainer of all time, including (most importantly) in the betting.  Therefore I am persuaded the awkwardly named Eileendover is a certainty for the bumper at Liverpool tomorrow (5.45 Aintree). At that price I cannot back her but ..... I am attracted to the mare who was second to Ben Dover's cousin (sorry could not resist it) last time. Miss Lamb was giving weight to Eileendover and pulled too hard and still came 2nd. The form has been boosted since. You can back Miss Lamb at 16/1 this evening. I reckon that is a cracking bet each way.

"Why does the starting price (SP) still exist?" - a question I have never come up with an entirely satisfactory answer to.  As far as I am aware there is no such thing as a starting price for bets on sports other than horse racing. You bet on Manchester United to beat Arsenal at 2/1, 8 hours before the kick off, and that's the price you get paid at whatever fluctuations there have been in the meantime. I am pretty sure that most reasonably clued up gamblers on horse racing always take the early price rather than SP when placing their bets, which simply leaves the 'tobys' in the betting shop who get paid at starting price because the do not opt to take the price when handing the betting slip over to the cashier. A quick scan of the best prices on offer on the morning of the race usually gives you an overround of between 104% (for level weight races with short priced favourites) and 114% (for the more open handicaps). The SP overround is usually about 120%. The mos...

Easter weekend and it is the Plumpton 'Easter Festival'.  I have been going for the past 30 plus years, but for the second year running there is no trudge from the station along the footpath covered in dog shit (it's against the law to pick up in Plumpton - dog owners there do not even put their hound's poo in a pink plastic bag and hang it from a bush) but absence really is making the heart grow fonder.  Yes the 'family fun day theme' is irritating, with longer queues for the face paintings, trampolines and the roundabout than for the tote. I will even miss trying to get your monkey on the shortening favourite as the bookie patiently explains to the woman (yes sorry it is always a woman) in front of you that having £1 each way on the even money favourite is probably not a good bet , and no £1 is not enough. The quality of the racing has improved a bit over the years, with the Sussex 'Champion Hurdle' attracting a  good class of horse, but is still gener...

Breaking news - I am struggling to find a bet today. Maybe it is because of my Calvinism and associated reluctance to gamble on Good Friday, although I suspect the dour Scot John Calvin would have disapproved of wagering every day of the year. All weather finals day at Lingfield used to present an opportunity. Simply back any French trained horse as the market always underestimated them. That angle may have gone as people wised up but in any case this year there are only 2 French trained runners, and both of them used to be trained here so the unknown element is missing. A combination of the pandemic, lower prize money and (oh ok maybe) Brexit seems to have put off the Gallic raiders. There is rugby league on the telly, but it's during the afternoon. I like my rugby league after dark under lights whilst drinking a beer. In the end the only punt I may have is in the 4.30 at Newcastle, Oakenshield for Linda Stubbs. Won for Kevin Ryan last year and since then has run poorly but as a c...