The week before Cheltenham

Punting light this week as I attempt to build some ammunition for Cheltenham. I have only been to the Festival once. It was 1996, the year that Alderbrook was runner up attempting to win the Champion Hurdle for the second successive year. A man next to me in the crowd had obviously backed him large because when he was beaten he declared Alderbrook to be "dog meat, just dog meat" which as well as being unfair was also untrue as the horse was (unusually for a jumper) still entire. Instead of the canning factory he went on to have a moderately successful 'career' at stud.

My experience - and the Festival has got even bigger since - is that the course was so crowded that you had to decide whether to go to the paddock, have a bet or watch the race as it was only possible to do one of these things. Meanwhile the Irish visitors stayed in the bar drinking Guiness. 

The atmosphere was fantastic but I prefer to watch it on TV - which of course we all will be doing this year. 

People have asked what my ante post fancies are? These days it is none as I find ante post betting so difficult, and the competition on the day amongst the bookies have removed much of the advantages of backing horses at Christmas for races in March.

My approach to next week will be fairly simple-

1. Festival form is important - horses are creatures of habit and those that have run well at the Festival before are likely to do so again, and even more importantly those that flopped remember the experience and can repeat it. Lisnegar Oscar could be value to repeat his stayers hurdle win.

2. On balance the Irish horses are better than the English horses, and I doubt the Gordon Elliott shenanigans will make much difference to that.

3. Willie Mullins horses go off too short - and as with Aidan O'Brien in the classics there is often value in backing his apparent second or third strings.

4. Henry de Bromhead has the best team he has ever had, and unlike Willie Mullins his sometimes represent value (is it because with a name like de Bromhead he is not considered properly Irish?)

5. If the money comes for Goshen in the Champion Hurdle then Honeysuckle could be really good value with the 7lb mare's allowance.

6. The tote can be value - especially the Placepot. If one of the odds on shots is beaten then the dividend is often big.