Too many nationals

In recent years there have been an explosion of nationals to add to the (Grand) National - Sussex, Durham, Southern, London and Devon to name just 5 newish arrivals.

This afternoon it is the Somerset version at Wincanton, a track I am keen to visit. The going there is normally good but the rain means it is heavy.

This 'national' will be a slog and there is a short priced favourite, Cyclop, who distorts the book a shade. He is trained by Matt Sheppard, but only moved to him last weekend having been involved in a strange escapade where David Dennis has moved his horses from Tom Symonds, where he had been assistant trainer for a short time. Read the story here. That cannot help his preparation for this (another Lacey to Sheppard transferee ran poorly yesterday). Add in the hard race Cyclops had only 8 days ago and I think his price is too short.

The bet therefore is a dutching one-

3.50 Dawson City/The Kings Writ

Dawson City is ridden by Millie Wonnacott (see yesterday's comments). The King's Writ came 2nd in this last year, should prefer the heavy ground and is slightly better handicapped now.

I have even had a small fun dual forecast the pair.

Then finally there is-

2.20 Wincanton Buckhorn George.

This horse has - almost - everything going for it - wants heavy ground, Harry Cobden (1st jockey to Paul Nichols) on board, appears to want the extra distance in this race and is well handicapped. The almost is that he is trained by Colin Tizzard, whose horses are running poorly. Yesterday Moving Day fell out the back of the telly in the bumper at Newbury.

Buckhorn George has been backed and he's currently best priced 3/1. My intention will be to back him at the Betfair SP (yes exchanges is added to the future topics list) on the assumption that he will drift before the off because of the Tizzard lack of form.