Tipsters to follow - or not

I have written before that I hate giving tips. I do not mind backing a loser myself but always feel terribly guilty when someone else does so on my advice (no matter how many caveats I give).

Occasionally I am asked "Do you follow tipsters yourself?"

The best concise answer to that is "Yes some but not blindly".

Let's get newspaper tipsters out of way; Templegate (the Sun), Newsboy (the Mirror), Robin Goodfellow (The Mail) etc.  On the whole these seem no better or worse at picking winners than your average betting shop punter. Most of time you make a loss backing their naps.

There are 2 exceptions I would make, from contrasting newspapers. Rob Wright of the Times appears to work very hard and there is a logic and pattern behind his choices. His naps often shorten which suggest he is respected by oddsmakers. Slightly bizarrely the 'communist' tipster, Farringdon of the Morning Star, makes some interesting selections. There are long losing runs but from time to time he/she (I have no idea of the true identity of Farringdon) will select a big price winner. This national hunt season he/she (they?) have already had a 50/1 nap go in, and I vividly remember Farringdon tipping Beech Road to win the Champion Hurdle at massive odds (and no I was not on despite having seen him win the National Spirit at Footwell 2 weeks earlier). Because the winners are rare his big price selections stay at big prices.

As for the Racing Post yes I do read it every day. Both Richard Birch ('Birchy') and Graeme Rodway are a bit eccentric, and certainly not everyone's cup of tea judging by the comments often found on forums, but they both seem good at identifying low grade horses who are handicapped to win in the near future. Rodway particularly concentrates on Chelmsford ("my local track"), while Birch actively prefers low grade racing and I am inclined to always take note when he tips a horse running at Brighton. He can spot a horse suited to the unique nature of the track - hopefully racing will resume there this summer. Birch's weekly column in Racing and Football Outlook is entertaining. He has some big bets, and I have had some success following up next time on a horse which he has backed and lost.

As for the 'top' tipsters in the Post I am inclined to think they have had their day. Tom Segal was brilliant in the heyday of Pricewise but that column no longer has the influence it did (queuing outside the betting shop on Saturday morning to back his selection in the 15 minutes some bookies held its price - but often letting you only have £10 and "the rest at SP mate"). I just get the impression Segal has got a bit disillusioned and lost his enthusiasm (it happens to us all in the end I guess).

Paul Kealy seems a real character - definitely the type of person you would like to hear telling stories down the pub. Occasionally he comes up with a gem, and is good at spotting the flaws in a favourite, but his naps record in recent times is moderate.

The consensus seems to be that the current 'king of the tipsters' is Hugh Taylor of At The Races. He boasts a tidy return on investment (ROI) profit for the past 11 years, albeit getting smaller as time goes on. The problem is that it is impossible to get the odds shown when the tip goes up. This is testimony to his influence but no good for your average recreational bettor like me. Indeed there can be an angle if you fancy a different horse to a Taylor tip - you might find yourself getting a higher price then expected (especially if your bookie is still offering best odds guaranteed).

For me the best judge at the moment of the more well known tipsters is Rory Delarghy. He writes a Saturday column in the Irish Field, and also does the tipping 2/3 times a week on the Sporting Life website. He won the Racing Post Naps competition for the last flat season by a country mile, and you can find his nap in the RP naps table the night before. Oddly his nap is sometimes not tipped in the Sporting Life column. Today for example he tips Clegane (2.10 Chelmsford) and Ridgeway Flyer (3.20 Plumpton), but his nap is I See You Well (2.50 Plumpton).

As for the numerous other tipsters you will find on social media take care - especially if they charge a fee. I vividly recall a well known tipster (and funnily enough convicted drug dealer) in the same bookies as me one Saturday morning. His phone rung and it was obvious that a client was asking for "today's good thing". The tipster walked over to the race cards displayed on the wall, run his finger down and picked a horse at random - "my contact tells me it's burning up the gallops."

My basic rules for tipsters are therefore-

1. Look at their record. If they cannot provide it avoid it. Is the record verified? The Smart Betting Club do a good job on this.

2. Do they explain the logic behind the selection? Does this make sense? Is is just a rehash of what you find in the RP, Timeform etc.? Be wary of any selection which does not include the reasoning, what my maths teacher called the 'working out'.

3. If they claim to have 'inside information' take no notice. 95% of the time they will not. If they do why are they telling you?

Hope Plumpton is on today. My favourite track and we could all do with some entertainment. Air Hair Lair should go well for Sheena West in the 4.20.