Rick Spotting

Checking the runners and prices the evening before is really 'rick spotting'. William Hill tend to be the first to put the odds up, then Bet 365 and after that the rest follow (I'm never entirely sure how much the odds compilers from the rest simply copy those who go first).

I cannot bet with Hills as they closed my account and will not let me open it again (humble brag time). Bet365 still give me best odds guaranteed though so it is with them I tend to back the night before.

There's no snobbery towards the all-weather on this blog. Spotting a low grade handicapper ready to win again is a possible way to make small profits - and remember you do not have to bet on every race but the bookmakers do have to price them all up (and maybe sometimes using an algorithm it is rumoured). It is possible I spotted a minor rick in the 12.30 at Lingfield.

Bet 365 had Percy Prosecco at 5/1 and Pledge of Peace at 8/1. Hollie Doyle normally rides for Percy's trainer Archie Watson but is instead on St Leger winning Laura Mongan's Pledge. Doyle is just about the best rider round Lingfield and is in high demand with the trainers. Some complain it is "difficult to get her these days" and I think she has a fair chance of being champion flat jockey this year. My assumption (and it is just that - I never have inside information and am sceptical of it in any case) is that she had the choice of rides and opted for Pledge. Luke Morris rides Percy and I am not a fan of his 'call a cab saddle bumping' style. My money therefore went on-

Pledge of Peace 12.30 Lingfield.

Interestingly by this morning the prices had 'flip-flopped' with Pledge 5/1 and Percy out to 11/1. Bet365 offered me the opportunity to cash-out with a profit of £1.75. No thanks - never cash out unless for a life changing amount (cashing out will also be a future subject).

The other bet falls simply into the handicapped to win category-

Sword Exceed 3.30 Lingfield

This horse is now 8lb lower than when he last won. There were signs last time that he could be ready soon, and trainer Ivan Furtado has fitted a tongue strap. He's in my tracker to back until he wins again.



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

5 for tomorrow - Grooveur has given me too much confidence!

2.05 Uttoxeter - Oski  is an utter dodge pot but is surely an each way bet to nothing? Maybe put in the forecast with Beaufort West? 2.40 Uttoxeter - Barney Bateleur is going to win over fences and this is a hurdle race so small stake only but I think Stormy Flight is handicapped to win it. Again maybe dutch them and a small dual forecast. 3.10 Uttoxeter- Susy Smith has gone all the way to the (north) midlands to run Animal. I think this horse will win again one day. Currently 6/1. 5.10 Ffos Las- Saddlers Quest. Came 5th at 100/1 under a "quiet" ride at the same track on 4 February. Should be of interest in a handicap (which this is). Sorry some of them are in the same races.
Read more

Restricting - Sorry Sir we do not want your business

Last year - before 'lockdown' obviously - I was invited by Racing UK (Racing TV as it is now) to a kind of focus group. We probably did not meet the usual diversity criteria. Basically we were all white men aged in our 50's and 60's, which I suspect makes up a considerable portion of the Racing TV subscribers. We were asked to introduce ourselves and detail our interests in racing and betting. What then followed was each of us in turn describing how we watch and bet - followed by tales of how various bookmakers restrict us. To be honest there may have been a small bit of boasting going on - "I've been banned by more bookmakers than you" - but there is little doubt that our collective experience was that if a punter shows a degree of skill in his wagering then the bookies do not want your business. I thought it might be interesting to report my experience of being restricted. My local Ladbrokes betting shop were promoting their Grid card (similar to a super...
Read more

How to bet on freemasons with sticks

Ok golf is not exactly my favourite sport - better than motor racing and ice skating maybe but apart from the Open and the Masters I struggle to take much interest. Those clothes, the saloon bar image, the rather old fashioned attitudes to women, shorts and wearing jeans, and now players and clubs which enable the top players to hit the ball so far that the best courses are no longer a challenge. In my previous job there were always a significant number of keen golfers who took every opportunity to play the sport which us non-participants called 'freemasons with sticks' (as it happens with some justification. I do though occasionally have a bet on it though. It is one of the few sports where there are regular 100/1 winners and even Tiger Woods in his pomp would go off 3/1 plus. Obviously at those prices picking the winner is difficult but there are some factors which can help. Golf is very much a form game with players having hot (and cold) streaks). The trick is to spot the pl...
Read more