Flippers and a snorkel required - Chepstow and Newbury

Surprisingly Chepstow today was given the go ahead after an early morning inspection. The horses will need wellingtons but no doubt a TV presenter on Sky will at some point say "they are getting through it." I think this means that the horses are not getting stuck - at least hopefully the ones I have backed will not (although the younger ones might need arm bands).

Newbury is also on. There are quite big fields and although not as bad as Chepstow it will still be hard going there. I have enjoyed going to Newbury in recent years for the end of November meeting which hosts the Ladbroke (boo). They have done a good job upgrading the course, funding it from a large housing development and hotel which actually fit in rather well.

At Newcastle there is a "bumpers for jumpers" card, a curious creation which gives the chance for mainly jump horses to race on the flat. Taking place on the all weather it favours those who prefer good ground (of which there is very little around this time of year) and the weight arrangements can lead to some betting angles. The problem - and yes with betting there is always at least one - is that the good ground horses are not fit and you can never be sure if the trainer is not treating the race as a racecourse gallop for which they might get paid a small amount.

The most intriguing horse running at Newcastle is Proschema in the 1.50. He came 8th in the St Leger to Kew Gardens and was placed in the Northumberland Plate (aka the Pitmens' Derby). He is best priced 5/4 and at level weights with a bunch of moderate jumpers he should win easy ..... but he's trained by Dan Skelton (who I can never get right) and should surely be a 1/2 shot if the stable were confident? That's enough to put me off.

On to today's bets then. It's my practice to look at the prices the evening before. I backed 2 short priced favourites-

Hoi Polloi 12.55 Newbury and (the appropriately named) Coconut Splash 1.35 Chepstow. 

However the £80 was already back in my account by 9am as both are non-runners. Obviously Emma Lavelle did not want Hoi Polloi to mix with the masses, and Evan Williams did not want to get his coconut wet.

That leaves 2 horses which are still scheduled to run-

Barney Bateleu 2.00 Newbury. This horse is still 150/1 with Bet365 so realistically its chances are low. Oddly At The Races have this and another horse trained by Andy Irvine at Newbury (Brown Bullet in the 3.05) as having the first run 'for a new yard'. They are in exactly the same yard - Andy Irvine is the husband of Zoe Davison ('their previous trainer') who sadly died earlier this month. The Irvine/Davison set up is an excellent family run operation and they do well with moderate horses. Barney Bateleu has ran ok in midfield in his first two novice hurdles. The likelihood is that he will do so again in order to then go handicapping of a realistic mark but I think he has more chance than the price suggests and could just run into a place.

Gowel Road 2.30 Newbury. He was beaten by Bear Ghylls (an excellent horse who I fancy to go well at the Cheltenham Festival) and now has his first run in a handicap. He is the top weight but in my view he is the best horse. The trainer, Nigel Twiston Davies is streaky (and is hinting that his string are just coming hot) while the jockey, Nigel's son Sam, is just about the strongest and most determined around. I backed Gowel Road at 9/2. He's 3/1 now but that's after some non-runners.

Then this morning I have backed -

Maliboo 4.20 Chepstow. It's her second run in a handicap and she's as well weighted as any in the field. The clincher though is the jockey. In my view Millie Wonnacott is as good as any of the other jockeys in the race - and better than some of them - and her 7lb claim makes Maliboo the best in at the weights. She was 16/1 when I backed her.

Hopefully that gives some reasoning behind my bets. I hope to explain more about the processes I use to reach a selection over the coming days.